By Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean Sea Monday afternoon and could bring a rare November threat to the United States this weekend after tearing through parts of the western Caribbean.
Rafael is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday and could rapidly intensify over the warm water of the northwest Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’ll slam Cuba Wednesday, potentially as a Category 2 hurricane, and then emerge into the Gulf of Mexico.
From there, the storm’s ultimate path and intensity in the Gulf and potentially along the US Gulf Coast is difficult to pinpoint with confidence because the system has just formed and is still several days away from reaching the area.
“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the National Hurricane Center said. Anyone from the US Gulf Coast to the northeastern Mexico coast will need to monitor updates closely.
Despite the uncertainty, tropical alerts were issued for the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, adding to alerts already in place in Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Early forecasts from the hurricane center show the system’s center reaching the US Gulf Coast later this weekend anywhere from the Florida-Alabama border to Louisiana.
But this area could shift dramatically in the coming days while the system tracks through the Caribbean.
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